若仅凭“感觉”、“我认为”或“我的经验表明”,在金融市场肯定是不行的--“可重复的金融操作”定义是什么?若无法逻辑清晰地阐明自己的交易体系,其实至少表明还没真正地懂;即使赚了很多钱,也不能说明问题。
巴菲特虽然说了很多谎、执当今误导大旗,但有一点是很明确地正确--在2013年5月的年会上,他明确地表示:
Warren: ... ... people should be cautious ... ... even if they have a track record. I would advise anybody to develop an audited track record as early as we can. It’s far from the sole reason we hired Todd and Ted, but we looked at their record. We looked at a record we could see and understand. We look at a lot of records we see and don’t understand.
If you have a coin-flipping contest with ... orangutans ... of ... 300 million you’ll have 200,000 that will flip 10 times successfully and will go around getting people to hire them for future coin flipping contests.
... ... develop a record over time and be able to explain to ppl why that record is product of sound thinking rather than being in tune with the trend or being lucky.
很明显,对接班候选人Todd和Ted的记录,巴菲特能看懂的会确认;巴菲特看不懂的需询问,直到自己能透彻地理解其逻辑、并辨别对错。
所以,交易哲学或投资哲学比记录本身更重要--记录有可能有时不尽人意,但真正的价值在于哲学体系!